Atlanta Falcons vs Indianapolis Colts Point Spread Picks

This game is in Berlin, Germany. Atlanta has lost three in a row after Parker Romo missed a potential tying extra point with 5:01 left in the game, and the Falcons lost 24-23 to the Patriots. Michael Penix Jr. played through a knee injury and went 22-for-37 for 221 yards and three TDs and no interceptions for the Falcons. Indianapolis has won 15 of the past 18 meetings with Atlanta. The Colts' four-game win streak was snapped, as they lost 27-20 at Pittsburgh, turning the ball over six times, with three of those turnovers resulting in Steelers touchdowns. QB Daniel Jones will look to bounce back from easily his worst performance of the season, as he had three picks and two fumbles. The Colts had averaged 36.3 points in their previous four games when turnovers were not an issue. They have gone OVER three of four, and the Colts are 8-1 OVER their past nine against teams with losing records. Pittsburgh was held to 38 yards rushing, and Indianapolis is 8-1 OVER after allowing fewer than 90 yards rushing in its previous game. The Colts are 5-1 OVER following a loss and 7-3 OVER as favorites dating to last season. Take the Colts on the moneyline and the OVER.

Shane Steichen is doing a fine job in his first year as head coach of Indianapolis and the Colts have won five of six games losing only to Cincinnati in that span. The Colts defeated Pittsburgh 30-13 on Saturday to stay tied for first in the NFC South with an 8-6 record. Gardner Minshew threw for 215 yards and three TDs and the Colts had 170 yards rushing while overcoming a 13-0 deficit against the Steelers. Indianapolis went OVER for the fourth straight game while averaging 25.5 points and the Colts are 5-1 ATS their past six games. Atlanta has lost five of seven, including its past two games against Tampa Bay and lowly Carolina. The Falcons had only 204 yards of offense in its ugly loss to the Panthers, who won a Eddy Pineiro's 23-yard field goal as time expired. The Falcons are 0-6 ATS their past six games after scoring fewer than 15 points their previous game and 3-10 ATS their past 13 games overall. Indianapolis is 8-2 OVER versus teams with losing records and 10-3 OVER after totaling more than 350 yards its previous game. Take the Colts and the OVER as a Max Play.

Atlanta finally lived up to its talent with a 24-20 win over the Eagles last week as a dog. QB Matt Ryan passed for 320 yards and three touchdowns while the young, fast run defense was dominant in allowing 49 yards on 2.3 yards per carry. They face a Colts defense that is #21, allowing 23.5 points per game and the Falcons are 47-25 ATS in road games when both teams score 20 points or more. Indianapolis has been an underdog in two games but now finds itself in the role of favorite. The schedule has been difficult, opening with road games at the Chargers on the West Coast and at rival Tennessee last week. The Colts also rank #21 in rushing yards allowed and the speedy visitors match up well for this indoor game. Play Atlanta.

Looking at this game and seeing Andrew Luck vs. Matt Ryan when both are on their game would probably produce a serious amount of points. But, this game is not shaking out that way. Andrew Luck is injured and struggling, and 30-year-old Matt Hasselbeck is at the helm for the Colts. Meanwhile, after the Falcons came out of the gate appearing to be the best offense in the NFL, averaging 32.4 points per game in their 5-0 start, the Falcons offense has gone on hiatus as they have averaged just 16.8 ppg over their last four and are just 1-3. That is a huge drop off. In the last four, they haven't come within 11 points of the opening five game average. In the last six games, Indianapolis has not scored more than 27 points, and the Falcons defense has stepped up in the absence of offense, allowing just 15.7 ppg in their last three. Atlanta is now 15-5-1 to the UNDER in their last 21 games, including 9-1-1 to the UNDER vs. a losing team. The UNDER gets the call in this one.

There are now just a pair of teams left that have failed to win a game on the season, and leading the way are the 0-8 Colts. After losing 62-7 a couple of weeks ago, this is the ugliest of the teams this season, especially for the sportsbooks. Despite hanging big numbers on them, Indy continues to lose by a ton each week (they are 2-6 ATS). As a result, you can expect the numbers to remain inflated. The Colts have a chance here because they are facing a team in Atlanta that has surrendered over 5 yards per carry in their last two games. If Indianapolis can get something going on the ground, Curtis Painter has a chance to have an adequate game. If the Colts are in it, Mathis and Freeney become viable on defense. Atlanta is in a good letdown situation here. They are off an emotional upset win over a very good Detroit team and they have New Orleans on deck. The Falcons can't be too excited for this one. Atlanta also plays measurably worse on the road, where they are 1-3 ATS on the season. I'm not going to sit here and try to make the Colts look good, they are not. What I can do is take a snapshot of history that shows teams like Indy are completely undervalued because no one wants them. Winless teams from Week 9 on in the NFL are a 74% bet ATS and it doesn't get any better than that! So, we'll swallow hard and back the Colts this week.