Atlanta Falcons vs Detroit Lions Point Spread Picks

Detroit showed nothing, losing to the Chargers last week, 34-7. Coming off a 15-2 season, they have nothing to prove in August. Head coach Dan Campbell is 5-8 in the preseason. They won't risk an injury to star Jared Goff, so QBs Hendon Hooker and Kyle Allen will run the offense. Hooker will start and lead four series last week, finishing just 3-of-6 passing for 18 yards with an interception. The Lions opened preseason last year on the road and lost at the Giants, 14-3, with 228 yards while going 5-of-17 on third down. Atlanta has home-field advantage, and expectations are high under second-year coach Raheem Morris to end a seven-year playoff drought. QBs Easton Stick and Emory Jones are battling for jobs as the team won't carry four quarterbacks and may not carry three. Play Atlanta. 

The Lions finished strong last season but fell short of the playoffs. This season is supposed to be the year the Lions make it to the playoffs as a rising team. That may be derailed by injuries. They lost their 2nd best defender in safety CJ Gardner-Johnson, to a pectoral injury. It also looks like starting guard Halapoulivaati Vaitai will miss some time. LT Taylor Decker may also be out again. WR Amon-Ra St. Brown injured his foot last game and will likely be less than 100%. Atlanta has been very good defensively through two games. They will add CB Jeff Okudah who will start this week. The biggest mismatch will be at TE. The Falcons use their TEs more than all but two teams and Detroit has allowed almost 200 yards to TEs through two games. I think this game is very close, but the matchups are mostly in favor of the Falcons, and I think they come away from this one feeling good. Make the play on Atlanta.

Detroit finally has found some offensive rhythm after dominating the Arizona Cardinals, who were 13-point favorites and lost 30-12 to the Lions last week. Jared Goff had his best game of the season with three touchdown passes while completing 21 of 26 passes. Craig Reynolds ran for 112 yards, and the Lions may have a budding star in Amon-Ra St. Brown, who caught eight passes for 90 yards. They might even have found the kicker they have lacked in Riley Patterson, who kicked three field goals against Arizona. Detroit is 9-5 ATS, and Atlanta is 6-8 both straight up and ATS. Also, the Falcons come off of a poor performance against San Francisco, losing 31-13. Matt Ryan threw for 236 yards and a TD, but he was under constant pressure, and that will be true again against Detroit's rejuvenated defense. Detroit beat the Falcons, 23-22, in 2020. Goff is in COVID protocol, but he still could play this week. Still, Detroit has covered the spread five of its last six games and four of five road games. The Falcons are 1-5 ATS their last six home games and 3-8 ATS versus NFC teams (2-6 ATS overall as home favorites dating to last season). Detroit has gone UNDER nine of its last 12, and the Lions are 5-1 UNDER on the road. Atlanta is 14-6 UNDER after scoring fewer than 15 points its previous game. Take the Lions and UNDER.

Detroit has won two of three and has a winning road record. Veteran QB Matthew Stafford leads a balanced offense that is averaging 26.6 points, #15 in the NFL. Detroit comes off a 34-16 rout of Jacksonville after a bye week. They face an Atlanta squad that has lost all three of its home games and fired head coach Dan Quinn and general manager Thomas Dimitroff. The defense is terrible, second-worst in total yards surrendered (432.5 per game), second-worst in passing yards allowed, and fifth-worst in points surrendered (20.8 per game). The Falcons are 51-80 ATS versus teams that average 24+ points per contest, 45-71 ATS after scoring 30+ points in the previous game, and 9-25 ATS at home after a win by 14+ points. Back Detroit.