Atlanta Falcons vs Cincinnati Bengals Point Spread Picks

The Atlanta Falcons lost a heartbreaker last week at home to the New orleans Saints 43-37. They just could not stop the Saints all game, and New Orleans won the toss for overtime, and went right down the field to end the game without Atlanta getting possession in overtime. Cincinnati QB Andy Dalton had a miserable year last season - as did a lot of the Bengals. Most thought it would cost Marvin Lewis his job and cause wholesale changes to be made, but the Bengals pretty much remained in tact. Dalton has led the Bengals to six more points a game over 2017 so far, and over his last 35 games as an underdog, the Bengals are 22-13 ATS. Atlanta is seeing more from their offense, scoring 80 points in three games, but the defense has betrayed them by allowing 85 points. Atlanta has also been torched for 709 passing yards the last two games. In his last 50 games in the role of a favorite, Matt Ryan is an ugly 19-31 ATS. Take the points on Cincinnati.

The Atlanta Falcons suffered through a lot of key injuries last season on the offensive side, especially at wide-receiver. It left a good QB in Matt Ryan without a lot of strong options, and the Falcons paid the price. They are healthy again, and you could see the difference last week as they went for 37 points. The one constant, however, is a defense that may be somewhat improved over a year ago, but still average at best. That will mean the Falcons will likely end up in a lot of shootouts this season. I think the total has some wiggle room here on the OVER. The Bengals have certainly thrived at home on offense. :ast season a team not known for offense scored 40+ in half their home games, and went for 34 or more in six of the eight regular season home games. I think this one becomes a shootout, so make the play on the OVER.

Matt Ryan threw for 250 yards last game but it took him 43 passes to do it. That performance has been a reflection of his career: Great at home, average at best on the road. At home he completes 6% more of his passes and his yards per attempt rise a significant 1.5 yards. The TD/INT ratio improves as well, goijng from 26 TDs and 18 INTs on the road to 21/11 at home. Needless to say, the Falcons are more offensive under the Georgia Dome where the have averaged 24.2 points per game in their last nine. The Bengals rank No. 13 in terms of yards allowed per game, but those numbers don't tell the whole story as they have been padded against poor offenses. The reality is that they allowed season-high points to both Cleveland and Tampa Bay, and were a field goal away from allowing New England's season high of points too. The Bengals went over 350 yards themselves last game. After doing that they have been 5-1 to the OVER in their next one. After allowing 30 points in their previous game, the Falcons are 7-2 to the OVER in their last nine. There is a lot of hidden value in this total and I like the OVER.