Atlanta Falcons vs Chicago Bears Point Spread Picks

Chicago scored 7 points at Green Bay last Sunday, and most of the damage came after halftime: the Bears trailed 14-7 and were outscored 17-0 in the second half. Before that, they had beaten Philadelphia by 20 and the Jets by 11. Caleb Williams, who has missed the last three games with a hamstring injury, practiced fully on Wednesday and Thursday. Chicago has allowed 14 or fewer first-half points in four straight games, 6 to Minnesota, 7 to Philadelphia, 3 to the Jets and 14 to Green Bay, and it has led at the half in three of its five games. Atlanta has led at the half in its last three games, 17-7 over Green Bay, 24-7 over New Orleans and 14-9 over Baltimore, after trailing Pittsburgh 13-7 and Carolina 20-3. Its first-half scoring in those five games was 7, 3, 17, 24 and 14, and Michael Penix Jr. was the quarterback for the last three after missing the first two. Chicago will be without defensive end Montez Sweat, who is suspended for two games for violating the league’s performance-enhancing substances policy. Chicago allows 19.2 points a game; Atlanta allows 24.4. I’m taking Chicago on the first-half spread Sunday afternoon.

Atlanta has a shot at winning the NFC South, just one game behind Tampa Bay. The Falcons are Top 10 in the NFL in rushing and are sticking with QB Taylor Heinicke (4 TDs, one pick) after he helped lead them to a 29-10 win over the Colts. Atlanta's defense is sixth in the league in points given up (19.2 per game), ninth in yards allowed, and third on third down (33.66%). The Falcons are 13-4 ATS on the road in the second half of the season versus teams with a winning percentage between 40% to 49%. Chicago's defense is 21st in the NFL in points given up (23 per game) and 29th on third down (43.72%). They're in last place with two quarterbacks combining for 18 TDs, 15 picks, and 42 sacks. The Bears are 3-12 ATS after outrushing an opponent by 150+ yards in the last game. And NFL home teams with a winning percentage between 40% to 49% are 13-40 ATS after covering four of the last five when facing a losing team. Play Atlanta. 

Atlanta has lost two straight following its miraculous win over Carolina three weeks ago and the Falcons' offense has stalled scoring an average of just 16 points in the two games since. Marcus Mariota was 19 of 30 for 186 yards and two touchdowns with an interception in the rematch with the Panthers, but he also was the leading rusher with 43 yards on three carries. The Falcons have gone UNDER five of their past seven games and this game's posted total is inflated somewhat due to Chicago's recent defensive woes. The Bears suffered a costly miss on an extra point and lost to Detroit 31-30 on Sunday although Justin Fields threw for 167 yards and ran for another 147 and the Bears became the first NFL team in the Super Bowl era to run for at least 225 yards in five straight games. All of which is time-consuming and will help keep the Atlanta offense off the field. The Falcons are 3-7 ATS their past 10 home games and 0-4 ATS their last four overall. Also, Atlanta is 35-16 UNDER its past 51 November games and 7-3 UNDER its past 10 home contests. Chicago's last two losses have been by a total of four points. Take the Bears and the UNDER.