Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers Point Spread Picks

This is both a buy-low spot on the Falcons and the OVER. Atlanta is in stop-the-pain mode with four consecutive losses, the last two coming in agonizing fashion. The Falcons fell, 24-23, at New England on a missed extra-point with 4:40 left and then allowed Indianapolis to rally for a 31-25 overtime win in Berlin last Sunday. Atlanta will have the three most explosive playmakers on the field with Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts. Robinson has the third-most combined rushing/receiving yards in the NFL, and London has the seventh-most receiving yards. Pitts has the fourth most tight end receptions. The Panthers have surrendered the NFL’s fourth-most yards to tight ends. Atlanta has revenge for a 30-0 loss to the Panthers on Sept. 21. The Panthers haven't swept the Falcons in 12 years. Atlanta outgained Carolina by 108 yards in that defeat. The Panthers lack the Falcons' passing attack, but can contribute their share of points to this total going OVER by taking advantage of Atlanta's 29th-ranked run defense. Rico Dowdle is the leading rusher in the NFC. Take the Falcons on the moneyline, and bet the OVER. 

Atlanta has benefitted from playing four of its first five games at home. Despite a 3-2 record, they're getting outscored on the season. They have one of the worst run defenses in the league surrendering 148.4 yards rushing per game, plus are last in the NFL on third down (48.53%). Atlanta is on a 6-15 spread run. Carolina will attack that soft run defense with RB Chuba Hubbard (393 yards, 5.8 ypc) on an offense that averages 4.7 yards per carry, 10th in the NFL. Carolina beat Atlanta on this field when they last met, 9-7, as an underdog. Carolina ran for 129 yards and held a time-of-possession edge of 33:56 to 26:04, so back the home dog in this division rivalry clash. Play Carolina.

Carolina would like to avenge an opening-week loss to Atlanta that started the Panthers on a path to a nightmare season, including a coaching change. The Falcons haven't had a great year themselves and they have lost four of six, including 29-25 to Tampa Bay last week. Atlanta wasted a good effort by Desmond Ritter as he threw for 347 yards and a touchdown, but Baker Mayfield threw a go-ahead 11-yard pass to Cade Otton with 31 seconds left for the Buccaneers and the game soared OVER by 12.5 points. Atlanta is just 2-7 ATS its past nine games as a favorite and 2-6 ATS overall following an ATS loss. The Falcons are 3-9 ATS their past 12 games overall and 3-8 ATS on the road. The Panthers have gone OVER four of their past five December games. This is a low posted total and Atlanta allows 20.7 points per game. The Falcons are 0-4 ATS as road favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 points. Carolina outgained New Orleans 303-207, but was burned by two bad plays on special teams. Take the Panthers as a Max Play and the OVER.