Arizona Cardinals vs Washington Redskins

We have a pair of teams searching for starting quarterbacks. Washington lost QB Kirk Cousins, so they add 34-year-old Alex Smith. Smith can be steady but is unspectacular. That will be a concern with an offense around him with few playmakers. The defense is where they made major moves, using two of their first five draft picks on Alabama defensive lineman Da'Ron Payne (first round, #13 overall) and Virginia Tech's Tim Settle. All four starting linebackers from 2017 return. Washington is 15-7 UNDER the total in Week 1, scoring 17, 16 and 10 points on opening day the last three seasons. They face an Arizona squad desperate for a quarterback with Sam Bradford, Mike Glennon and rookie first-round draft pick Josh Rosen aboard. This looks like a run-heavy attack behind talented RB David Johnson again. In 2017 the Arizona offense was ranked #24 in third-down percentage, #25 in scoring, and #30 in touchdowns scored in the red zone. Arizona is on a 15-5 run UNDER the total at home. At least the defense is reliable, finishing in the top 10 in each of the past three years. Arizona is 15-7 UNDER the total in September and this looks like a battle of punts, incomplete passes, and field goals. Back the UNDER.

Arizona has a losing road record and this is another long road trip to the East Coast. Defense is the main problem at #25 in the NFL in points allowed (24.4 points per game). And it's getting worse, allowing 30+ points in five of the last nine contests. They just finished a three-game homestand but they've played their worst football away from home, losing to the Lions (35-23) as a favorite, losing 34-7 at Philadelphia, 33-0 at the Rams and 31-21 at Houston. The Cardinals are 36-16 OVER the total after scoring fewer than 15 points in their previous game, as well as 38-14 OVER after getting fewer than 150 yards passing in the last contest. They make the long trip outdoors to Washington, a team coming home after playing two straight on the road and four of its last six away. QB Kirk Cousins (22 TDs, nine INTs) leads the offense that plays best at home, with a 20-10 win over the Giants in their last home game. They've also beaten the Raiders (27-10) as a dog and put 30 points up on the great Minnesota defense. The Redskins are on a 25-9 run OVER the total, 20-6 OVER versus the NFC, and 11-2 OVER after a spread loss. The wagering value is on a high-scoring tilt along with the home team to win the game. Play Washington on the moneyline and the OVER.