Arizona Cardinals vs New Orleans Saints

Last preseason, the New Orleans offense averaged 20.3 points going 2-1 OVER the total. That included going OVER in their only road game, a 22-17 victory at Los Angeles. Arizona has lost seven of its last 11 August tilts. Defense has been a problem and for this season, the linebacker corps looks below-average again in talent and depth while youth is a concern at cornerback. In 2023, the Cardinals allowed the second-most points (26.8 per game) in the NFL. They lost 38-10 in their last preseason home game allowing 504 yards, going OVER the total in two of their last three August home games. Play New Orleans/Arizona OVER the total.

Arizona has gone UNDER every game this season, including by 22.5 points in its 19-9 loss at Seattle on Sunday. Kyler Murray threw for 222 yards and ran for 100 yards, but the Cardinals had trouble finishing drives and their only touchdown was scored on a third-quarter fumble recovery by safety Chris Banjo in the end zone. Arizona is averaging only 19 points per game and allowing 23.7. New Orleans is 12-3-1 UNDER its past 16 Thursday games and the Saints have stayed UNDER six of seven following an ATS loss. The Cardinals are 30-12 UNDER their past 42 games after an ATS loss and 16-5 UNDER following any loss. The Saints used a lot of time running 34 times against Cincinnati while the defense allowed the Bengals just 75 yards on the ground. Andy Dalton was only 17 of 32 for 162 yards and the Saints offense stalled on the final two drives. Jameis Winston could be back for this game, but he hasn't played in three games. The Cardinals have stayed UNDER six of seven after scoring fewer than 15 points their previous game. Take the UNDER as a Max Play. 

Arizona has finally found a dynamic quarterback in Kyler Murray (seven TDs, four INTs). The Cardinals have won three in a row, all as an underdog, scoring 26, 34 and 27 points. Arizona is 18-7-1 ATS after getting fewer than 250 total yards in their previous game. They head to New Orleans, a team playing well behind backup QB Teddy Bridgewater, as star Drew Brees is still out. Even though they have only one loss, the Saints haven't been dominant, winning games by 6, 7, 2 and 2 points. The offense is #18 in total yards, while the defense is allowing 21 points per game. Arizona is 31-15 ATS against teams with winning percentages of 75% or greater, while New Orleans is 16-32 ATS at home after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. And NFL road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a defense allowing 27+ points or more are 42-17 ATS. Take the points with Arizona.

This is a high NFL Week 2 preseason total and it's hard to see why. It's a short week of preparation for Arizona having played Saturday against the Chargers. The Cardinals have a new playbook with first-year offensive coordinator Mike McCoy. They got a win and 24 points, but only had 118 yards passing and 56 rushing in the preseason opener. The ground game averaged just 2.7 yards per carry as they rebuild the offensive line. The Cardinals lost longtime QB Carson Palmer so they are working in a bevy of new signal callers in Chad Kanoff, Mike Glennon, Sam Bradford and rookie QB Josh Rosen. Rosen didn't get much help from his offensive line, having to dodge the rush to get a pass off. The four were a combined 12-of-26 passing with one TD, one pick as Arizona was 0-for-11 on third down...and that was at home! Now they head out on the road to face a young New Orleans defense with plenty to prove, even in preseason. They come off a win at Jacksonville as the defense shined, allowing 2.8 yards per rush and getting six sacks. They may double that sack total against this weak Arizona O-line. Don't look for many minutes from QB Drew Brees, with the Saints rotation dropping off sharply with Taysom Hill, Tom Savage and rookie J.T. Barrett. Play the UNDER.