Arizona Cardinals vs Miami Dolphins

Arizona is getting it together winning two of three. They won at San Francisco, 24-23, as a +7 underdog and come off a 17-15 victory at home over the Chargers as a dog. QB Kyler Murray (9 TDs, 3 INTs) leads a balanced offense that averages 150.3 yards rushing and 5.5 yards per carry, the latter the second-best in the NFL. Miami had great expectations but has been a bust because of the injury to QB Tua Tagovailoa. The offense is 27th in passing, 27th on third down (32.10%), and last in points (11.7 per game). The run defense surrenders 130.7 yards per game and is 18th in yards per carry (4.6) allowed, both of which will be a problem against the Arizona ground attack. Play Arizona. 

Arizona is 5-2 and has had a week to recover from its thrilling 37-34 overtime win against Seattle, Oct. 25. That was the Cardinals' third straight win and they have averaged 35 points during the streak. Kyler Murray has thrown for 1,847 yards and 13 touchdowns and he has rushed for 437 yards on 6.7 per carry. The Cardinals lead the league in total offense yards while averaging 29.0 points per game. Arizona also is #1 in rushing yards and yards per carry. The defense is ranked #20 in yards allowed, but the Cardinals are giving up only 20.9 points per game. Miami started prized rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa and beat the Rams 28-17, but Tagovailoa was not a huge factor as he finished 12 of 22 for 93 yards, and suffered many dropped passes. Murray playing at home has the clear advantage against a rookie playing in his first road contest. The Dolphins plan to open up the passing game more, which will be another challenge for the young QB. Both teams are 5-2 ATS this season and Arizona is a small favorite in this matchup. Take the Cardinals on the moneyline.

This is a long road trip for a struggling Arizona offense that has scored 19, 24, 20, and 18 points in four of its five road contests. Their defense has struggled on the road, allowing 30.4 per game. When facing a winning team the past two seasons, the Cards are 2-10 ATS. Arizona is 9-4 UNDER the total on natural grass, plus 12-5-1 UNDER after getting less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Miami's offense has struggled on the road but has been productive at home where they have scored 27.2 points per game. Take Miami and the UNDER.

Arizona's schedule over the first three weeks included Seattle, Philadelphia at home, and New England on the road. Coming into the year, I am sure no one saw 3-0 coming. There are always surprises in the NFL early going, and the Cardinals might be at the top of that list as only Atlanta and Arizona remain unblemished in the NFC. Are they for real? Time will tell. There are certainly questions that remain at quarterback but so far so good. The defense has led the charge, holding New England out of the end-zone for 58 minutes on the road, and keeping the Eagles’ attack out of the end-zone the entire game. What most don't realize is that this is not a short-term phenomenom for the Cards. This team finished 7-2 last season, and are now 10-2 over their last 12 games. That's a healthy sample size saying they are an elite team. They are certainly under the radar still. Getting them as a -5.5 point favorite at home vs. a pedestrian team (at best) like the Miami Dolphins is steeped in value. The Dolphins are 1-2 and Ryan Tannehill has struggled at QB with just a single TD pass to go with four INTs. He is completing a woeful 52.9% with a QB rating of just 58.3. In today's NFL, that just isn't going to cut it. It has been a while since the Fins got off to a good start as their September resume reads 6-17-3 ATS in their last 26. The Cardinals are playing big, and even bigger against the number at home where they have delivered the cash in six of their last seven. Take the Cardinals at home.

As mentioned above, the Cardinals had ample opportunity to blow out the Niners last week as they had a five-turnover advantage. But they ended up in a close game at home vs a team they were supposed to beat. Arizona could not move the ball in the red-zone and cash in on five extra chances. Their defense was only on the field for 22 minutes vs an average offense, and still gave up plenty of yards. Not likely they will be +5 in turnovers here again. Miami was within one play of beating the Brett Favre hyped Jets, as Pennington drove them down to the Jets 18 late, but was picked off to end their hopes. Pennington still finished with 26 completions for 251 yds and 2 TDs, so the Dolphins immediately have a huge upgrade at QB as compared to the one-win team from 2007. Statistically the Fins played the Jets to a dead heat, and overall they looked like a better team than the Cardinals. This line is based on a 1-15 Dolphin team from a year ago (that happened to lose in week one). But the Cards don't deserve to be this chalky after last week's performance. Last year they were favored at home by 6 over Carolina and lost, 10 over San Francisco and lost, and 11 over Atlanta and had to go to OT to get the win. Miami is much better, and I'll back them with the points here.