Arizona Cardinals vs Kansas City Chiefs Point Spread Picks

Andy Reid doesn't have a history of being too excited about winning in the preseason. Still, there could be some motivation for the Chiefs to quickly atone for their embarrassing performance in the Super Bowl against the Eagles. Jonathan Gannon is 2-4 straight up and ATS in preseason with Arizona, and the Cardinals lost all three in 2024, and two went UNDER. The Cardinals have gone UNDER four of six preseason games, and they averaged only 13.0 points per game in 2024. The Chiefs' backup quarterbacks behind Patrick Mahomes are Gardner Minshew, Bailey Zappe, and Chris Oladokun. Minshew has plenty of NFL experience, and Zappe has appeared in 15 games in his three seasons. Oladokun was drafted in 2022 but has appeared in just one regular-season game. Arizona will have Jacoby Brissett and Clayton Tune backing up Kyler Murray, who is expected to start in this game along with some other starters, although likely for just a couple of series. Arizona has gone UNDER four of five preseason Game One games. Take the Chiefs on the moneyline and the UNDER.

Kansas City took a step back in the offseason trading star WR Tyreek Hill to Miami for five draft picks. With the speedy Hill gone, defenses can be flexible with more man coverage as opposed to the constant Cover-two. The defense has holes getting the fourth-fewest sacks in the NFL, ranked #22 on third down, while the secondary got burned often and finished #26 in passing yards surrendered. That secondary has new looks everywhere losing three starters. Kansas City is 10-13 ATS as a road favorite. Arizona is a home dog despite making the playoffs while also having a star QB in Kyler Murray. Murray has a ton of talent around him, too, in TE Zach Ertz, RB James Conner, and WRs A.J. Green and DeAndre Hopkins. And the offense gets even better after trading for WR Marquise Brown, who had over 1,000 yards with Baltimore. Arizona's defense was #13 on third down and the team is 18-8 ATS as an underdog, including 10-2 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. And NFL underdogs that averaged 24+ points in the previous season are 43-16 ATS. Play Arizona.

These teams have far more defensive depth and talent than they do offensive ability. Both are also rebuilding their offensive lines, making many adjustments and changes in camp daily. Kansas City runs a conservative, safe, run-first offense under Andy Reid and he will be more vanilla than usual in preseason week one opening on the road. The Chiefs have managed to address most of their pressing needs on defense during training camp. The UNDER is 42-19-1 in the Chiefs last 62 games on grass. The K.C. QB rotation is not impressive with Alex Smith, Chase Daniel, Aaron Murray and Tyler Bray. Starting WRs Jeremy Maclin (neck strain) and Albert Wilson have been banged-up and missed some practice this week, so they've been going with Frankie Hammond Jr. and Fred Williams. Other than Maclin and Jason Avant, the Chiefs are extremely young at wide receiver. Kansas City scored 16 and 14 points in two road preseason games a year ago. Arizona has a weak offensive line with little running ability, still a one-dimensional offense. They do have plenty of defense, though. The UNDER gets call in this one.