Arizona Cardinals vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Arizona is getting enormous respect from oddsmakers and the betting public, but this is a tough situational spot. Arizona played on the East Coast in Week 1 at Tennessee, played its home opener Sunday, and now it heads back to the East Coast to Florida. They were a 4-point favorite over Minnesota, but they squeezed out a 34-33 win when the Vikings missed a late field goal. The Cardinals are 4-10 ATS as a favorite and 5-15-1 ATS after getting 250+ passing yards in their last game. This is the second straight home game for Jacksonville, and they are playing hard for Urban Meyer and the new coaching staff. Meyer likes a balanced attack, and Arizona is #25 in run defense, #30 in yards per carry (5.4) allowed. NFL favorites like Arizona are 53-97 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of minus-2 or worse, so back the home dog. Play Jacksonville.

The defensive advancement that this Jacksonville team has made from last year may be one of the best year-over-year upgrades we have seen in the NFL for quite some time, especially in an era where scoring is a plenty. The Jaguars gave up 25 points per game last year, but through 10 games this season they are allowing 14.1 ppg. They have held six of their opponents to nine or fewer points, and five teams to seven or fewer. The scary part is that they seem to be getting better as they have allowed just 31 total points in their last four games or less than eight points per game. The offense has done just enough to keep them in the winning column. Arizona has done very little offensively this season, and it has led to seven of their ten games playing UNDER the total. I don't see the Cardinals moving the ball much in this game, and Jacksonville will have the burden of scoring perhaps 30 points to get this one over the total - and they have only topped 30 just once time all season. Play on the UNDER.

The Jacksonville Jaguars finally won a game last week. Congratulations. They ended up in a shootout against Tennessee, scoring a season-high 29 points. Sometimes it takes just one game to start to believe that you can score, so I expect that the Jags don't get to 29 again here, but score more than the 11.8 points per game they were averaging before last week. The bigger problem for the Jags remains their defense which has allowed 32.3 points per game and is showing little signs of improvement. Only once this season have they held an opponent to under 24 points (and that was offensively challenged Oakland). Arizona is a much improved team over a year ago. Over the last eight weeks they are 5-3 with the losses coming to San Francisco, New Orleans and Seattle - nothing to cry about there. They are beating the teams they are supposed to beat. The offense, which had been problematic, has suddenly found its way as the Cardinals have scored 20 points or more in five straight games. Last year they scored 20+ just once in their final 12 games so this team is far advanced offensively over a year ago. The Cards have now covered six of their last seven following an ATS loss. While Jacksonville may have that satisfied feeling here, as they are 1-7-1 ATS off a win in their previous game. And home field has provided no advantage for them as they are just 2-9 ATS at home dating back to last season. Both teams seem to have a sense of offense right now, so I expect this one to play higher than expected. Go with both Arizona and the OVER.

The Jags have found some offense (finally). They've topped 30 points two weeks in a row now. Arizona won as a big underdog last week. We knew they were in a great situation there against an overrated St. Louis team that was ripe for the picking. And, we knew a motivated Kurt Warner would do well against his former team. But, this is not St. Louis' horrible defense. This is the Jags. They have the top pass defense in the league, allowing just 160 yards per game through the air. Warner won't find as much success this week. Outside of their game at Indianapolis, Jacksonville has put up 26, 20, 21, and 38 points on the road this season. Their record in those 4 games = 3-1 SU and ATS. Against teams the caliber of Arizona (Jets, Texans, Ravens and Titans), Jacksonville is 3-1 ATS and 4-0 SU. Jacksonville is one of the better teams in the league and this is a pretty big mismatch that isn't reflected enough in the spread. Jacksonville minus the points for two stars.