Arizona Cardinals vs Green Bay Packers

Arizona comes off an impressive road win 24-23 over San Francisco and the game stayed UNDER as the 49ers were shut out in the second half. The Cardinals have gone UNDER six of their past nine Sunday road games and Green Bay has stayed UNDER five straight against NFC West opponents. The Packers went UNDER in their 24-19 victory over the Los Angeles Rams. Jordan Love threw for 224 yards with two TDs and an interception. Arizona is 9-2 UNDER as a non-divisional road underdog of five points or more. Green Bay is 10-1 UNDER as a home favorite against a non-divisional conference team. Take the UNDER.

Arizona appears to be the real deal with a 7-0 record, and the Cardinals will face their toughest test of the season so far against Green Bay on Thursday night after routing Houston, 31-5, on Sunday. Kyler Murray was 20 of 28 passing for 261 yards with three touchdowns, he had his first interception since Week 3, and coach Kliff Kingsbury was back on the sideline after leaving COVID-19 protocol. The Texans were held to 160 total yards of offense in a dominant performance by the Cardinals, who have five straight covers. Green Bay improved to 6-1 with a 24-10 win over Washington, which had a 430-304 edge in yards of offense, but they couldn't score inside the red zone. Arizona actually has won the last three meetings, although they haven't met since 2018. Davante Adams is questionable after testing positive for COVID-19, and the Packers defensive coordinator, Joe Barry, also is out. DeAndre Hopkins (hamstring) is questionable for Arizona while Murray has a minor right finger injury, but he will play. The Packers are a woeful 10-23 straight-up in their last 33 games vs. elite offensive teams (those averaging 29+ points per game). Green Bay also struggles mightily to win on the road vs. top teams, having gone 5-18 in their last 23 road games vs. teams that outscore opponents by double-digits. Not sure if Zona will cover this large spread, but like them a lot to win the game. Take the Cardinals on the moneyline.

Green Bay has no business laying two touchdowns against anybody with its 4-6-1 record both straight-up and ATS and a loser of four of its last five games. Coach Mike McCarthy is on the hot seat as the offense has shown no consistency and it managed only three second-half points while losing 24-17 to Minnesota. Aaron Rodgers is not 100 percent healthy and he did complete 17-of-28 for 198 yards and a touchdown against the Vikings, but he was outplayed by Kirk Cousins who torched the Green Bay defense for 342 yards and three TDs. These teams last met in 2016 when Arizona won 26-20 in overtime and the Cardinals are 4-0-1 ATS their last five games versus NFC teams. Also, the Cardinals are 16-7 ATS their last 23 December games while the Packers are 2-8-1 ATS their last 11 versus the NFC and 4-9-1 ATS their last 14 games overall. Arizona has gone UNDER in six of its last seven after an ATS loss and 13 of its last 18 against NFC teams. The Packers have stayed UNDER in four of their last five overall. Grab the big points with the Cardinals plus the UNDER.

On the surface this looks like a huge blow-out in the making. But what appears obvious oftentimes turns out not to be the case. The Green Bay Packers certainly have a bad taste in their mouths after coming to the desert a few short weeks ago and getting trampled 38-8. A lot has changed since that game as Green Bay has gotten healthier. They have shored-up the weakness in the offensive line (just one sack allowed last week), and have gotten healthier on defense as well. What is most notable, is that Aaron Rodgers seemed to recover his swagger last week, and the Green Bay offense moved the ball a whole lot better. The most shocking part and under-the-radar aspect of this Packers team is just how well the defense has played. There are eight teams left in the playoffs, and Green Bay is second in holding opponents to 20 points or fewer, as they have done so 11 times on the season. Only the Kansas City Chiefs' well documented defense has done so more often. The Cardinals have had a great season, but their last game was rather eye opening. They allowed a season-high 36 points to Seattle, while scoring a season-low six, even though they still had something to play for. The Cardinals won the last meeting 38-8, but generated just 349 yards of total offense in the game. Let's not forget that Seattle put 38 points on Minnesota at Minnesota earlier then came back to score just 10 last week. Teams that beat an opponent by 18 points or more in the regular season are just 6-13 ATS when they meet in the playoffs, and just 1-5 ATS if it was from week 12 on - not including week 17 where teams often don't have anything to play for. The Packers are 36-16-2 ATS in their last 54 games after allowing 90 or fewer yards rushing and 50-35 ATS on the road under head coach Mike McCarthy. Green Bay is 7-1 to the UNDER in their last eight after a win, allowing just 18 ppg. The Cardinals are now 8-2-1 to the UNDER in their last 11 vs. a winning team. Take both Green Bay and the UNDER.

The Green Bay Packers may be 10-4 and on their way to the playoffs, but this team continues to struggle even with Mike McCarthy back calling the plays. They were extremely fortunate to win in Detroit on a Hail Mary, and were fortunate to come away with a win in Oakland last week. The Packers got a pick-six and another interception deep in Oakland territory for 14 of their 30 points. The offense generated just 293 total yards, a continued problem. The Packers may be the only 10-4 team in NFL history being out-gained from the line of scrimmage. The one good thing for Green Bay is the defense. The Packers may give up a lot of yards, but they are allowing just 18.9 points per game, which is 1.5 points away from the first-ranked Bengals. The Arizona defense isn't far behind as they allow 19.2 ppg on the season, so I'm a bit surprised at the high total. Here is an eye-opener to that regard: Since the 1989 season, when a pair of teams clash that both allow fewer than 20 ppg on the season, the average total points scored is 40.2. I know that includes a lot of games when scoring was not as it is today, but when you consider the games played from just 2012 forward it is still just 43.1. Take the UNDER.