Arizona Cardinals vs Dallas Cowboys Point Spread Picks

I cashed a unit on Dallas's moneyline in the preseason opener last week, and the setup for a repeat looks familiar tonight. Brian Schottenheimer has been blunt: his regulars, Dak Prescott included, will not take the field in any of Dallas's three preseason games, and that plan has not wavered heading into Arizona. Arizona's own approach has capped its starters at a drive or two all summer, and its top skill players are already banged up or on limited snaps: Jeremiyah Love is out with an ankle injury, and Trey McBride has barely touched the field through two weeks of preseason. Two offenses without their most explosive names, leaning on backups still auditioning for roster spots, is not a combination built for a track meet. Dallas still has not settled its own backup quarterback race between Sam Howell and Joe Milton, and whoever gets the call has looked sharp enough in camp that Dallas could be live on the road even without its starters. Both trends point in the same direction: a controlled, lower-scoring game with a live long shot buried underneath it. The UNDER is the strongest number, and I expect it to cash with room to spare. Dallas's moneyline goes along for free as the speculative piece.

Last place, Arizona has lost five in a row. The defense is 21st in yards allowed, while the offense has suffered numerous injuries. QB Kyler Murray is battling a foot injury and might be out again, while running backs James Conner and Trey Benson are out. The Cardinals are on an 8-20 straight-up run on the road. Meanwhile, Dallas is 2-0-1 at home. They come off a blowout loss at Denver, and QB Dak Prescott is 31-14-1 after a defeat. The passing offense is second in the NFL with 384.1 yards per game, with terrific targets in CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and Jake Ferguson. The Cowboys are on a 20-8-1 straight-up run at home. Play Dallas on the moneyline.

Arizona will be in a foul mood after blowing a 21-point third quarter lead and losing 31-28 to the Giants in Week 2. The Cardinals have won and covered six of the past seven meetings, including 25-22 last season. Joshua Dobbs has been a pleasant surprise for the Cardinals as he completed 21 of 31 for 228 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions and he also ran for a score. There was talk of the Cardinals tanking this season, but there has been no indication of it as they have covered the number both games and nearly defeated Washington in Week 1. Dallas has covered just one of its past five after winning by more than 14 points and Arizona actually has a better offense than the two New York teams that the Cowboys have played. Dallas had gone UNDER five in a row before last week's game, which missed another UNDER by a half-point. The Cardinals are 16-5 UNDER their past 21 September games and 9-1 ATS overall against the NFC East. Dallas coach Mike McCarthy is 18-9 UNDER on the road with the Cowboys. Take the Cardinals and the UNDER.

Dallas is focused on getting its best players healthy before the regular season starts. In the Hall of Fame opener last week, the Cowboys held back 16 players from the trip, including QB Dak Prescott, who is dealing with a shoulder strain. The QB rotation drops off sharply with Cooper Rush, Garrett Gilbert, and Ben DiNucci. They won't be showing much on offense, their last road game in August with a pair of home games in Weeks 2 and 3. Arizona won't risk an injury to talented young Kyler Murray, and there is below-average depth with QBs Colt McCoy and Chris Streveler hogging most of the playing time. Coach Kliff Kingsbury showed nothing in Week 1 of his last preseason in a 17-13 win at home over the Chargers. The Cardinals attempted 32 passes with 25 runs, while the Chargers ran (28 times) more than they passed (23). That was a typical Week 1 game where both coaches wanted to get a look at the kids and stay healthy, as this one looks to be. Play the UNDER.