Arizona Cardinals vs Cleveland Browns Point Spread Picks

Arizona star QB Kyler Murray is back and could see some action. Backup QBs Joshua Dobbs and Clayton Tune have combined for eight TDs and five interceptions while the ground game is providing balance averaging 5.1 yards per rush, the second-best in the NFL. Arizona is 17-4 ATS against defenses that allow 260 or fewer yards per game. In addition, NFL road underdogs that have lost five or more in a row are 59-25 ATS in November games. Cleveland's top-ranked defense got a lot of attention in September. But in four October games, they're 2-2 allowing 28, 17, 38, and 24 points, an average of 26.75 points given up per game. The Browns are 2-9 ATS after a spread cover and 37-63 ATS versus teams that commit 60+ penalty yards per contest. And coach Kevin Stefanski is 10-19 ATS as a favorite. Play Arizona as a Max Play. 

Unbeaten Arizona is Top 6 in the NFL in points (31.4 per game) and yards, while the defense is allowing 19 points per game and ranked third on third-down. That point differential is second only to Buffalo. QB Kyler Murray (10 TDs, 4 INTs) leads the only team that was able to beat the Rams and it wasn't even a close, a 37-20 rout as a road dog. Arizona is 3-0 on the road, winning two of those as an underdog. The Cardinals are 7-3-1 ATS as an underdog, an impressive 10-3-2 ATS as a road dog. Cleveland QB Baker Mayfield (4 TDs, 2 INTs) hasn't got going as the Browns have leaned on their ground attack. And this defense has been shaky, ranked #22 on third down, giving up 33 to the Chiefs and 47 last week in a loss to the Chargers. And the Browns are 8-20 ATS at home against teams that average 260+ passing yards per contest. Play Arizona. 

The Cleveland Browns were supposed to be the AFC North champions this season. They have so many offensive weapons and an emerging QB, as well as a disrupter on defense in Miles Garrett. Garrett is suspended and QB Baker Mayfield has been highly erratic throwing more interceptions (16) than TDs (15). Arizona's Kyler Murray has definitely out-played him with a lot less talent around him. The Browns were out-gained in their eight-point win vs. Cincinnati. This is also the last of a three-game homestand for Arizona and after losing the first two, NFL teams are 35-23 ATS in the third. I think that Cleveland is a no-show here. Take Arizona.

This seems like a gimme for the Cardinals against the lowly Browns, right? The reality is that this is a tough situational spot for Arizona, playing its third road game in four weeks, part of a stretch playing four of five games away. After blowing out three teams to start the season the oddsmakers have taken notice and have overvalued this group, now on a 1-3 ATS run. That included a 24-22 loss to the Rams at home as -7 chalk and a 25-13 defeat at Pittsburgh as -6. Cleveland is playing its second home game in three weeks. They should have beaten the Broncos in their last home contest as a +6 dog. Rookie Duke Johnson Jr. is second among AFC running backs with 31 receptions after leading the club with seven last week. The Browns are 9-3-1 ATS following a loss, including 7-1 ATS after a spread loss. The Cleveland fan base will be up for this one with another winning team in town and Arizona is used to play at home indoors, while Cleveland will be cool and rainy Sunday. Cleveland is also 18-7-1 ATS after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. And, Arizona's strength is Carson Palmer and the passing game. But, Cleveland is a perfect 7-0 ATS since last season vs. good passing teams (those averaging 235+ yards per game through the air.  Grab the home dog.

The Arizona Cardinals have now pulled off a pair of big upsets in a row, taking down Dallas and San Francisco in consecutive weeks. If there ever was a time for a team to be emotionally drained and as flat as a pancake, this would be it as they face the listless 4-9 Browns. Cleveland may not have the look of a team that can be competitive here on the road at 1-5, but their road schedule has been brutally tough. They have played Pittsburgh, Baltimore, San Francisco, Cincinnati and Oakland. All five of those teams are .500 or better, and they have held their own for the most part. The Browns have done very well in this spot as they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 on the road as a dog of +3.5 to +10, as well as 8-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing home record. The Cardinals are in a different situation. As a favorite of -3.5 to -10 they are 1-5 ATS in their last six. Play on Cleveland.