Arizona Cardinals vs Chicago Bears Point Spread Picks

The Chicago Bears got hit with a successful Hail Mary pass play as time expired last week. It dropped them to 4-3 in the division, and in the rugged NFC North, that is only good enough for last place. The Bears defense has been one of the best in the league. None of their seven opponents have scored more than 21 total points, and six of them have scored just 19 or less. Arizona is 4-4, but that is misleading. The Cards have won three games by a total of four points. They could certainly be 1-6 right now. Arizona is 3-1 in their last four games but has been outscored by a total of 17 points, and for the season, their scoring margin is -21. In this one, I see value in the Bears, and I will make the play in Chicago.

Chicago may lead the league in heartbreaking losses and one has to wonder how often they can continue to get off the mat after yet another tough defeat. Cleveland scored 13 fourth-quarter points, including a 34-yard field goal by Dustin Hopkins with 32 seconds left to beat the Bears 20-17. The Bears then nearly completed a Hail Mary pass that Darnell Mooney dropped after two deflections. Arizona has shown some life with the return of Kyler Murray and the Cardinals have covered three of their past five games although not surprisingly they lost to San Francisco 45-29 with Murray throwing for 211 yards. Chicago is 2-12-3 ATS against teams with losing records and 3-12-2 ATS after totaling fewer than 250 yards their previous game. The Cardinals are 21-10-3 ATS as road underdogs and 19-5-3 overall as underdogs of 3.5-10.0 points. Chicago is a demoralized team while Arizona wants to at least end the season on a good note with Murray back. Take the Cardinals as a Max Play.

Chicago is winless on the road and takes a long trip to Arizona. They also have a short week, coming off a Monday night game against Seattle. The Bears are 3-8 ATS when following a straight-up win, as well as 6-16-1 ATS after allowing fewer than 90 rushing yards in their previous game. 24-year-old quarterback Mitch Trubisky still has a long ways to go, tossing a pair of interceptions, and failing to connect on deep balls with several open receivers and was often too eager to bolt from the pocket. Yet, here they are a good-sized road favorite. The Bears are also 17-4 OVER the total when following a Monday night appearance, as well as 95-68 OVER as a favorite. Arizona ran into the overpowering Rams defense last week, but face a Chicago defense that is #18 in passing yards allowed. The Cardinals are 15-6-1 ATS after allowing 250+ yards passing in their previous game, plus 43-22 ATS at home after two or more straight losses. Unlike recent years, they have a reliable veteran QB in Sam Bradford, who has thrown more TDs than picks. They've simplified the offense for this week, too. The Cardinals are 40-16 OVER the total after gaining less than 250 total yards the previous contest, as well as 35-16 OVER after getting less than 150 yards passing the previous game. NFL teams scoring nine or fewer points in two straight games are 37-11 ATS that next game. Playing their second home game in three weeks, back the home dog in a game featuring more scoring than oddsmakers expect. Play Arizona and take OVER.

Mitch Trubisky's performance has given hope to long-suffering Bears' fans as he completed 18-of-25 passes for 166 yards and led three scoring drives in Chicago's 24-17 loss to the Broncos. Mike Glennon was expected to be the starter this season, but he was only two-of-eight for 20 yards with an interception. Mark Sanchez completed one of four passes for four yards. Trubisky completed his first 10 passes after he entered the game late in the second quarter so now the Bears have some competition at the quarterback position. Chicago also rushed for 173 yards on 36 carries, including 38 yards by Trubisky on three carries. Bears coach John Fox is 32-29 straight-up in preseason and his teams have covered the number in Game 2 the last two years. Arizona has lost both straight-up and ATS in the second week of the last two preseasons, including 19-3 at San Diego in 2016. Bruce Arians is 8-9 straight-up in exhibition play since joining the Cardinals, who come off a 20-10 win over the Raiders. Carson Palmer was four-of-eight for 39 yards and Drew Stanton completed 11-of-15 for 112 yards and Blaine Gabbert went five-of-nine for 53 yards. Chicago needs to continue improving and now have a healthy battle for the starting quarterback spot. Take the Bears to win this one straight-up.