Arizona Cardinals vs Baltimore Ravens Point Spread Picks

This record preseason winning streak is a point of pride for Baltimore and coach John Harbaugh after shutting down Tennessee, 23-10. The offense is a run-oriented style that chews up yards and the clock. But look how dominant the defense has been in the preseason, allowing an average of 9.9 points while winning the last 17 NFLX games. The speaks to the coaching, the pride, and the defensive depth the front office acquires. Arizona will face that defense without QB Kyler Murray, who tested positive for COVID-19. The backups are Colt McCoy, newcomer Trace McSorely, and Jarrett Guarantano. Arizona's defense gave up just 9 points after three quarters last week against the Bengals. The Cardinals are 8-2 UNDER the total in the preseason, including a 17-10 Week 2 loss to the Chiefs one year ago. Play UNDER the total for a Max Play.

It's been the season of the witch for poor Baltimore who sits at 1-5 on the season. The defense lost its top player (DE Terrell Suggs) to injury and the secondary has been awful at 29th against the pass allowing 286.2 yards per game, plus 26th in points allowed (27 points per game). The schedule-maker hasn't been kind either, already playing games out west at Oakland, Denver, San Francisco and now Arizona. This is also the Ravens' fifth road game in seven contests, and their fourth cross-country trip of the young season. They are off a 25-20 defeat at the 49ers last week as chalk. In fact, Baltimore has been favored in every game but one but they own just one win in six games. They just allowed 340 passing yards to a 49ers club that ranked among the league's worst passing attacks. Baltimore now faces Carson Palmer (14 TDs, 5 INTs), WR Larry Fitzgerald, and John Brown. Arizona is averaging 33.8 points per game, second only to the New England Patriots. Arizona is 8-1 straight-up the past three seasons vs. bad defensive teams like Baltimore (teams giving up 24+ points per game). As good as Jon Harbaugh has been, his team is just 10-18 straight-up on the road in the first half of the season. In contrast, Bruce Arians is 11-2 at home in the first-half of the season, 8-1 straight-up in home games after a loss and 12-4 vs. losing teams. This is a brutal spot for the visitors and the line reflects that. It's moved from 6.5 to 9 in most spots. I can't back Arizona at that line, but I can't take lowly Baltimore either. I do believe there's value on the Cards to win this game however. I peg them as having a 90%+ shot here. I know some folks don't like laying big moneylines. If that is you, just pass on this. But, keep in mind that a win here gets us a 25% return on investment - in one day! That's nothing to sneeze at (most people would die for something that returned 25% in a year). Take the home team to win outright.

The Baltimore Ravens looked about as bad as a team could look on Monday Night against Jacksonville. The offense did not generate a single first down the entire first half and the Ravens subsequently went down to a 1-5 team without much of a fight as a double-digit favorite. This game will mark just the fourth time in 22 years that a team lost as a double-digit favorite on the road, and has come back favored by double digits at home. It's too much. The first three have gone just 1-2. Arizona has had some problems of their own at 1-5 on the season of course. There is bad news with both of these teams, which historically has put the underdog here in a great spot. We also have the public ignoring the Ravens Monday Night debacle as they are coming right back with them at over 70% strong, expecting a fired up team to take out their frustrations on a helpless opponent. But, this line is inflated. Teams from Week 8 on that have just one win on the season are 77-49 ATS as a road dog. If they are big dogs getting more than a TD, that mark moves to 47-29 ATS. The Cardinals have also relished in this role in recent games as they are 4-0 ATS in their last four as a dog of greater than +10.5. Arizona has posted a 14-4 ATS mark in their last 18 games vs. great defensive teams (those allowing 14 or fewer points per game) and 34-14 ATS vs. teams that outscore their competitors by 6+ points per game (including 11-3 ATS under Ken Wisenhunt). The beautiful girl gets the dance at the party, while the ugly dog gets the money in the NFL. Take Arizona in this one.