Arizona Cardinals vs Atlanta Falcons Point Spread Picks

Atlanta plays its second straight on the road after a wild comeback at Tampa Bay, 29-28. Despite the win as an underdog, the Falcons are on a 2-7 SU, 4-5 ATS run. They were last favored against the Jets three weeks ago...and lost, 27-24. They're 1-5 SU/ATS as a favorite this season. Arizona comes home after a 40-20 loss at Houston. Before that, they played well in two of three games, losing close ones to Jacksonville (27-24) in overtime and at Tampa Bay (20-17). Play Arizona. 

Atlanta has been a moneyburner this season with a 1-7 ATS mark and the Falcons couldn't cover a 3.5-point spread last week as they lost 31-28 to Minnesota. Joshua Dobbs had been on the team for only a few days and he still threw for 158 yards and ran for 66 more against the Falcons. Taylor Heinicke threw for 268 yards and a TD in his first start for Atlanta, which relied on four field goals and a safety before Heinicke finally threw a 60-yard TD pass to tight end Jonnu Smith in the third quarter. Arizona had a historically low 58 net yards of offense against Cleveland, but the Cardinals are only slight underdogs in this game as Kyler Murray is expected to be back under center after being out since Week 14 of 2022. Arizona is 5-1-1 ATS after scoring fewer than 15 points its previous game and 4-1 ATS its past five home games. Atlanta is 0-5 ATS as a favorite and 0-4 ATS versus teams with losing records. The Falcons have gone UNDER eight in a row in Week 10 and five of their past seven this season and 11 of 15 overall. Also, Atlanta is 8-1 UNDER following a loss. Take the Cardinals and the UNDER as a Max Play.

The Arizona Cardinals opened last season at 7-0 and looked to be making a case for the Super Bowl. The wheels have fallen off and Arizona is now 5-16 in their last 21 games. They are now without QB Kyler Murray and he has been replaced by Trace McSorley. McSorley threw for less than 5 yards per attempt last week, and for his career, he now owns a 51.3 quarterback rating, with 1 TD and 4 INTs. Atlanta is in a similar spot as they will start Desmond Ritter. The Cardinals have scored 16 or fewer points in 4 of their last 5 and all but 1 of those was with Murray at QB. This is going to come down to running the ball and Atlanta does a much better job on the ground than Arizona, and they will emerge with a home win here. Make the play on Atlanta.

Two struggling teams matchup in this one although Atlanta has the more talent of the two, but just hasn't put it together yet this season. The Falcons still have the third-ranked passing attack in the league and will need to focus more on that instead of trying to establish a running game. That strategy might have worked 20 years ago, but not in today's NFL. The Falcons have several talented receivers and need to take advantage of them while defensively they have to put more pressure on the quarterback and that applies even more so this week versus a rookie QB in Kyler Murray. The Cardinals are 1-3-1 and were fortunate to get the tie against Detroit. Murray has been adequate, but he has as many interceptions (four) as touchdown passes with an 80.1 QB rating so the Falcons still have the obvious clear edge with Matt Ryan. Atlanta is averaging 20.4 points compared to 20.0 for the Cardinals. The UNDER is 22-9 in Arizona's last 31 home games and the Falcons have stayed UNDER their last four after scoring at least 30 points their last game. The Cardinals are 1-5 ATS their last six home games dating to last season. Take the Falcons and UNDER. 

Arizona's offense catches a break, facing a bad Atlanta defense that is #26 in yards allowed, #26 against the run, and #29 in points allowed (28.2 per game). The Cardinals are 7-2 OVER the total on the road against a team with a losing home record. But Arizona's defense is no rock wall either, at #15 in yards surrendered, #29 against the run, #21 in points allowed (25.2 per game). They face a Falcons team where the strength is on offense, #10 in yards gained, fourth in passing behind QB Matt Ryan (28 TDs, six INTs). Rookie wide receiver Calvin Ridley has been a terrific addition, hauling in eight touchdowns. Atlanta is 12-4-1 OVER the total against losing teams. This game is indoors and the OVER is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings, so look for more offense than oddsmakers expect. Back the OVER.