Portland Trail Blazers vs San Antonio Spurs Point Spread Picks

The Trail Blazers lost to the Spurs at home when San Antonio was without superstar Victor Wembanyama, and they lost to San Antonio again at home this past Sunday, when the Spurs did have Wembanyama. The result is that Portland is on the verge of elimination, down 3-1 in this first-round series. Look for the Spurs to close out Portland at home in Game 5. Wembanyama and San Antonio's excellent guard trio of De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, and Dylan Harper are too much for the Trail Blazers. Wembanyama was dominant this past Sunday with 27 points, 11 rebounds, four steals, and seven blocks in his return from a concussion. The Trail Blazers are averaging only 95.5 points a game in the two games Wembanyama has started and finished. The Spurs are 13-0 when an opponent fails to crack the century mark. The scary thing is that San Antonio easily covered both Game 3 and Game 4 despite falling behind by at least 15 points in each game. Take the Spurs.  

It is a huge bonus obviously for San Antonio if MVP candidate Victor Wembanyama plays today. But even if he doesn't because of a concussion, the Spurs can cover a number against the Trail Blazers. They proved that with a 120-108 road win in Game 3 of this playoff series two days ago. That was a crushing home loss for the Trail Blazers as they blew a 15-point second-half lead. That was the first OVER of the series after the first two games had gone UNDER. The Spurs have held Portland to an average of only 104 points during the series. San Antonio ranked eighth defensively during the regular season and fourth in defensive field goal percentage. Portland was 29th in field goal percentage and 28th in 3-point shooting percentage during the regular season. The Spurs used their superior backcourt depth of Dylan Harper, Stephon Castle, De’Aaron Fox and Keldon Johnson to win Game 3 by 12 points. San Antonio has the confidence, guard play and defense to do it again. Take the Spurs and the UNDER.

San Antonio is just a slight favorite in Game 3 due to Victor Wembanyama's questionable status as he works his way through concussion protocol. The Spurs are 8-0 ATS in their past eight games following a loss, and Portland is 2-11 ATS playing with two days' rest. The Spurs are 15-3 UNDER after a loss, and the past five meetings have gone UNDER, with the Trail Blazers averaging only 104.4 points. San Antonio obviously has plenty of talent even without Wemby, as five scorers were in double figures on Tuesday, although the Spurs went 7-for-24 on 3-pointers. San Antonio has won 16 of 20 against Western Conference opponents. Portland has gone UNDER eight of its past 11 games, and the Blazers have lost 16 of 20 as underdogs. The Spurs will come out focused defensively on the road after losing Game 2. Take the Spurs for the game and the first half UNDER.

San Antonio shot 48 percent and hit 15 of 33 3-pointers in its 111-98 victory in Game 1. Victor Wembanyama scored 35 points in his playoff debut, surpassing the 32 points Tim Duncan scored in his first playoff game for the Spurs in 1998. Portland missed 28 of 38 from the 3-point line, and while avoiding a total blowout, the Trail Blazers still didn't cover the number. Portland fell to 3-6 ATS in the past nine meetings, and the Spurs are on a 4-1 ATS run. The Trail Blazers are 1-6 ATS in their past seven games against teams with above .600 winning percentages. Portland has a bad history in the first round of the playoffs with a 15-36-2 ATS mark. Deni Avdija led the Blazers with 30 points, but he's not getting nearly enough help as the rest of the team went 27-for-70 (38.6%) from the field. Take the Spurs. 

One could make the case that San Antonio is the most dangerous team heading into the playoffs, even more than defending champion Oklahoma City as the Spurs swept the Thunder in all four regular-season matchups. The Spurs had covered the spread three straight before resting several starters in a loss to Denver on the final day of the regular season. San Antonio is 23-17 ATS at home and it has won 14 of its past 16 games overall, 16 of 18 home games. The Spurs are #4 in scoring defense allowing 112.3 points per game, #4 in defensive field goal percentage (.455) and they allow 35.9 percent from 3-point distance. Portland is #28 shooting 45.2 percent from the field and #28 in 3-point shooting at 34.1 percent. It won't get any better with Victor Wembanyama's elite defense looming in the paint. Tiago Splitter has done a great job since taking over for Chauncey Billups, but the Trail Blazers are at least a year away from being serious contenders. Take the Spurs.