Utah at Dallas

Dallas is 4-4 and has lost two straight, 115-100 to Sacramento on Monday and 112-111 to San Antonio on Wednesday. The Mavericks score 112.1 points per game, 16th in the NBA, and allow 112.3, 13th. That is a scoring margin of minus 0.2 per game. Utah is 1-7 and is being outscored by 11.2 per game, with Jaren Jackson Jr. out six to eight weeks and Jusuf Nurkić out. Two of the Jazz's eight games have gone to overtime: October 28 against the Spurs, and Wednesday at New Orleans, where Utah lost 120-113 behind 39 points from Keyonte George. George averages 22.0 per game, and Lauri Markkanen 17.1, so the Jazz have two scorers who can keep a flat-margin team like Dallas from pulling away. Either bet pays our bankroll once it lands a little more than half the time. The Jazz score 107.8 per game, 27th in the league, and allow 119, 24th. That leaky defense is the reason Dallas's own recent games matter for the total. The Mavericks' last five finished with 222, 216, 227, 215, and 223 combined points, an average of 220.6. Utah's 233-point game at New Orleans needed an extra period to get there. I expect Utah's offense to keep struggling to score, and Dallas has not been pushing the pace either. With the Jazz making 27.6% of their wide-open threes, I'm backing Utah with the points and the UNDER tonight.