Toronto at Minnesota

Toronto has held both regular-season opponents under 103. Chicago scored 92 in a 135-92 Raptors win, and Washington scored 102 in a 112-102 Raptors win. That is 97 points allowed per game, and the Raptors forced 27 Bulls turnovers and 23 from the Wizards to get there. Against Washington they made 7 of 34 threes and still scored 112 by winning the offensive glass 18-6 and the paint 52-32. Minnesota has been just as stingy, holding Miami to 106 and Orlando to 93, an average of 99.5. Orlando made 20.5% of its threes, and Minnesota won the rebounding battle 60-43. The Timberwolves scored 131 at Miami on 21 made threes in 50 attempts. Two nights later in Orlando they scored 115 on 14 threes in 37 attempts, and Anthony Edwards went from 45 points to 5 of 23 shooting. Toronto's offense leans on steals and second chances, and I expect Minnesota to limit the second ones, since it has allowed Miami four offensive rebounds and Orlando eight. Neither club has let an opponent reach 107 this season, which is why the UNDER is my play tonight.