Toronto at Brooklyn

After taking a 2-1 series lead against the Toronto Raptors, the Brooklyn Nets have fallen down in the series 3-2. They now face an elimination game tonight at home. There is not a long history of a team that is facing elimination from the playoffs down three games to two at home, playing off a road loss, and prior to that a loss at home. It certainly makes the team look like they are reeling, but the results dictate otherwise. These teams have come back when facing elimination to cover 75% of the time as a home favorite off the losses mentioned above. What has led the charge is the play on the defensive end of the court, as these games have seen a grand total of 183 points per game scored between the two teams - 7.3 ppg below the average total set. The first half of these games has also shown the defensive commitment of a desperate team that is trying to get to a game seven, as an average of just 92 ppg have been scored by both teams combined. This scenario, coupled with the fact that Brooklyn has a lot more playoffs experience than Toronto (who has not won a playoff series in 13 years), puts Brooklyn on the value-laden side. The Raptors are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven following a win, while the Nets have delivered an 11-2-1 ATS mark in their last 14 against a winning team. The Nets are now a perfect 6-0 to the UNDER after scoring 100+ in their previous game. This one will start out defensive and stay that way as closeout games often do. The Nets also have a lot of edges here from a historical standpoint. Take the first half UNDER, the full game under, and lay the point on Brooklyn to get the cover.