San Antonio at Memphis

At first look, seeing the Spurs with just 10 losses this season would make it easy to make them the choice here, just as 2/3 of the betting public has. The difference is that the Spurs are 21-8 on the road and Memphis is 20-8 at home, so pretty even there. The difference is Memphis is a red-hot team, and is 8-1 in their last nine at home and is playing with revenge. They are also 11-3 ATS vs. teams with a winning percentage over .600 in their last 14. Memphis is also 21-6 ATS in their last 27 vs. the West. I'll play Memphis at home.