2004 Season NBA Basketball Past Picks
March 26, 2005
Sacramento at Denver
Saturday 03/26 09:05 PM Eastern
4 units on Denver -5 (-110) (risk 4 to return 7.64) RESULT: WIN
A team with a small lineup will face a team on a big roll Friday night in Denver. The Sacramento Kings, minus center Brad Miller, will take on the Denver Nuggets, winners of five straight, 13-of-14 and 20-of-25 since its coaching change to George Karl. Both teams played and won Thursday night at home. The Kings took a spirited 109-101 decision from the Dallas Mavericks as a two-point favorite. It was the club's first win versus the Mavs this year in four tries. Peja Stojakovic led the way with 38 points, offsetting 35 from the Mavs' Dirk Nowitzki. At the same time Denver was trouncing the L.A. Lakers at home 117-96 as a nine-point favorite. Denver's The team's lone loss in last 14 came at the hands of the Phoenix Suns. It was the lone non-cover at home under Karl as well. So the Nuggets find themselves in eighth place in the Western Conference with a record of 37-30. They are 38-27-2 ATS. At home the team is 24-10 S/U and 22-11-1 ATS. But they are 0-2 versus Sacramento and 0-1-1 ATS, keeping this line lower than it should be. Both of those games were prior to Karl's arrival and both were played in Sacramento. Also, the Kings have won seven of their last 10 but have gone just 5-5 ATS and have struggled on the road. Before winning their last over the L.A. Clippers Saturday 111-107 the Kings had lost four straight away and went 1-3 ATS. For the year the Kings are .500 on the road and just 14-18-2 ATS. Even before Karl, in Denver the Kings have managed just a split of four games and are 1-3 ATS. We'll continue to take advantage of an unbelievably slow reaction to Denver's ressurgence here as Denver rolls tonight. We'll lay the five and go with Denver for four stars.