Portland at Utah

I expect a big game out of Damien Lillard tonight and think we are picking up some "variance" value on the Blazers. Lillard was 0-10 from deep on Monday, and you can be sure he will seeking redemption here. Utah is 18-12, but has had to fight almost every night to get a win and each of their last five games has been decided by eight points or less, so the cumulative effect of having to go hard for 48 minutes in every game is likely to show itself tonight. The Jazz is just 3-6-1 ATS in their last 10 games playing below the line. Make the play on Portland.