Portland at San Antonio

One could make the case that San Antonio is the most dangerous team heading into the playoffs, even more than defending champion Oklahoma City as the Spurs swept the Thunder in all four regular-season matchups. The Spurs had covered the spread three straight before resting several starters in a loss to Denver on the final day of the regular season. San Antonio is 23-17 ATS at home and it has won 14 of its past 16 games overall, 16 of 18 home games. The Spurs are #4 in scoring defense allowing 112.3 points per game, #4 in defensive field goal percentage (.455) and they allow 35.9 percent from 3-point distance. Portland is #28 shooting 45.2 percent from the field and #28 in 3-point shooting at 34.1 percent. It won't get any better with Victor Wembanyama's elite defense looming in the paint. Tiago Splitter has done a great job since taking over for Chauncey Billups, but the Trail Blazers are at least a year away from being serious contenders. Take the Spurs.