Portland at Atlanta

Atlanta has won just 18 games on the season, but is favored here. They have been playing well lately, but they face a motivated Portland squad who is in 10th place and fighting for the final playoff spot. The Trailblazers have struggled without Damian Lillard, losing three of four, but this is nearly a must-win game for them so I expect their A-game. Atlanta loses on average by eight points per game. And in post-All Star play, Portland is on a 31-14 ATS run vs. teams that get outscored by 6+ points per game. The Hawks are just 15-25 ATS this season vs. teams like Portland that allow 106+ points per game. Dating back to the start of the 2017 season, the Blazers are 46-28 ATS in expeceted close games (-3 to +3). And, Atlanta is just 9-18 ATS this season when following an ATS win. Take Portland.