2004 Season NBA Basketball Past Picks
March 28, 2005
Philadelphia at Sacramento
Monday 03/28 10:05 PM Eastern
4 units on Philadelphia +4.5 (-110) (risk 4 to return 7.64) RESULT: loss
2 units on Game Total UNDER 210 -110 (risk 2 to return 3.82) RESULT: loss
Chris Webber returns to his old stomping grounds tonight in Sacramento. Philly comes in playing well, while the Kings have been struggling. They watched a seven point half-time lead in Denver disappear as they were slaughtered like all the others. This is a big game for both teams and should be a fun one. After last night's 96-89 victory over the Los Angeles Lakers at the Staples Center the 76ers head have a short trip up the California coast to take on the Kings. Sacramento is waiting and licking its wounds after losing at Denver Saturday night 113-99. Despite the loss the Kings are holding onto the fifth spot in the West at 43-28. Prior to the Denver contest they had won seven of their last 10 and gone 5-5 ATS. In the Kings' last win, Peja Stojakovic led the way with 38 points, offsetting 35 from the Mavs' Dirk Nowitzki. The Kings have been forced to employ a small lineup in the absence of center Brad Miller. They have played through numerous other injuries as well and the trades of veterans Doug Christie and Chris Webber. Despite all the turmoil the Kings have continued to win at home though not as often as in season's past. They are 26-10 at Arco Arena but just 18-18-1 ATS. For Philly, Webber and new teammate Allen Iverson followed up their best game as teammates, 68 combined points in a 103-101 Friday night home win over Toronto, with a poor shooting night versus the Lakers. But the Sixers' defense forced the Lakers into a season-high 26 turnovers as Philadelphia improved its record to 35-34. The win enabled the Sixers to tie Indiana for seventh spot in the Eastern Conference. The Sixers are four games in front of ninth-place New Jersey and trail first-place Boston by 2.5 for the top spot in the Atlantic Division. After a slow start, Philadelphia is 9-7 since its trade deadline deal to add Chris Webber and 9-5 with Webber actually in the lineup. The Sixers are just 15-20 straight-up on the road this season but a profitable 19-14-2 ATS. We'll side with an underrated Philly squad in what will be a very important game for Webber. Neither of these teams can play much defense which might cause you to look at the OVER. But games in which the total is greater 210+ with two poor defensive teams (98-102 PPG) have gone UNDER at a rate of 34-20 (63%) since 1996. Sacramento has gone UNDER at a clip of 28-11 when facing poor defensive teams (allowing 99+ points/game) over the last 3 seasons. Philly has really stepped up their defense lately, holding opponents to just 89.8 points per game over their last five games. They can hold Sacramento tonight to 100 and I expect them to score roughly the same. Four stars on Philadelphia plus the points and two more on the under.