Orlando at Washington

This is a total mismatch on paper, but when you get big road favorites against a poor home team, things seem to change. The road team is usually playing with less than their "A" game, just trying to escape with the easy win while the home team steps it up a notch, trying to take down a top team. The results bear this out. When you put teams in this situation over the last 14 years in the NBA, a dog at home that is getting 11 points or more has been 66-46 ATS, so the mismatch on paper leads to the wrong side. I'll go with Washington in this one.