Orlando at Milwaukee

Orlando has lost five in a row, but three were by six points or less, including a 131-127 loss to Cleveland as a +9 dog. Prior to the skid, they upset the Pistons, 102-89, as a +4 dog. Milwaukee is a big favorite but comes off a 109-96 loss at Indiana on Monday, turning it over 18 times. The Bucks have exchanged wins and losses over the past six games, including losing the last time they were a favorite, 129-110 to Toronto. Milwaukee is getting outscored on the season because of bad defense at #26 in field goal shooting allowed, #28 at defending beyond the arc, and #18 in points allowed. Milwaukee is just 12-24 ATS against teams allowing 46% shooting or worse. The Bucks are also 4-10-3 ATS versus the Eastern Conference and the Magic are 15-7 ATS in the last 22 meetings. Play the big points on Orlando.