Orlando at Cleveland

The Orlando Magic did what most thought was impossible - grab a game one win in Cleveland after the Cavs were 43-1 at home in meaningful games this season. Orlando’s win seemed especially out of the ordinary when we all watched Orlando cough-up big leads against Boston twice, and Philadelphia in the first round. How could a team that struggled to get here win a game like that? This time it was Orlando who came back from the dead after a 15-point halftime deficit. Many look at the Orlando performance as a fluke, as they shot 55% and will be hard pressed to put forth a similar performance against what I'm sure will be an angry Cleveland team. I'm in the other camp for this one. That first game was not a fluke. It confirmed a rare and hard-to-find weakness for the Cavs. Cleveland has one Achilles heel that went unnoticed by most during the season and the past couple years. They have been exploited by the best teams, especially those that have size and scoring ability in the paint. Orlando, with Dwight Howard, is exactly the type of team that presents matchup problems inside for the Cavs. As a result, the Magic have won 9 of the last 12 vs. Cleveland, going 11-1 ATS in the process! Fluke? Just look at the points in the paint where Orlando had 50 in game one and in the other three games, they never had less than an eight point advantage. That led to Orlando outscoring the Cavs by over 9 points per game in the four games combined. Other top-level teams with solid bigs also gave Cleveland trouble. Look at the Lakers who beat the Cavs twice. In their win in Cleveland, they outscored the Cavs 62-24 in the paint. In Los Angeles, it was the same story: 42-28 in the paint. Boston beat Cleveland with Garnett, and again it was the same story: 58-22 in the paint. Those are huge numbers, but are invisible to most! To put it in perspective, the last 30 games Cleveland has played Boston, Orlando and LA, the Cavs have won just three games by 9 or more points. So in those 30 games, Cleveland is 3-27 against a line of -9! Their biggest win against Orlando has been seven points. In their last 12 meetings, they never covered nine points! Orlando on the other hand, has beaten Cleveland six times in those 12 meetings by 11 or more! The bottom line here is that Cleveland has real matchup problems vs. Orlando. They struggle with a strong inside presence in Howard - they have no answer for him. They struggle vs. big shooting permiter players like Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu. Was game one a fluke? The more you look into it, no. I like the Magic to cover this big spread again. I also like the UNDER. Game one in this series was a shootout as the teams combined for 213 points. Orlando shot a ridiculous 55.1% from the field as their three-point game came back to them. As a result, we grab 4 full points in value in game two with the line rising to 188.5.  I expect both teams to bring a better defensive effort here. That game one was a fluke in one sense - the total points scored. Prior to that game, Cleveland hadn't allowed more than 85 points in a playoff game! They were averaging just 80 ppg allowed in the playoffs. Orlando had allowed 100+ just twice in 13 playoff games, allowing around 90 on average. The teams combined for a 15-6 UNDER mark in the playoffs going into that game. Expect defensive adjustments. This game figures to be more defensive as Cleveland is 24-10 to the UNDER after scoring 100+ points. They are also 28-12 to the UNDER off of one day of rest. Orlando comes into this game at 52-21 to the UNDER after scoring 100+ in their previous game. They are 29-12 UNDER this season vs. teams that average 100+ ppg. The Magic are also 10-1 UNDER the past two seasons following a game in which they made 55%+ of their shots while Cleveland is 11-2 UNDER this steason after scoring 60+ in the first-half of their prior game. The play here is contrarian after seeing these teams light up the scoreboard last game, but I'm looking for things to return to form and for this game to go UNDER. Take the Magic and UNDER here.