Orlando at Boston

The Celtics are yet again playing a close series that will come down to the wire. The winner here progresses to play the Cavs - what a prize! Many will look at this series, and say Boston is lucky to be here, as the Magic squandered big leads in two of the games. Orlando should have put this series away a long time ago. These statements are at least partially true. But that is just the point. Why didn't Orlando, the more talented team, close this thing out? It's a mental thing. They showed the same lapse against the Philadelphia 76ers when blowing an 18-point lead in game one of that series. The Magic probably are the better team in this series given the absence of Kevin Garnett. So why are they having so much trouble? The three biggest factors are coaching, heart, and non-exploitation of mismatches. The Magic's biggest mismatch advantage is inside with Dwight Howard. Howard has had a good series, but he hasn't been dominant over extended periods. Why not pound the ball in to him all game long? If the Magic had done this all series long, Boston would have gotten beaten down over several games. But, Howard is averaging just 12 shots per game. Instead, the Magic seem content jacking up three after three from beyond the arc. The last three games Howard has squeezed off 40 shots. When you consider he has 19 offensive rebounds, and a bunch of put-backs contributing to that total, how much is he really getting the ball on designed plays? By the same token, the Magic have taken 77 shots from beyond the arc. When your offense has the best interior player on the floor, but your offense is launching twice as many long balls as he is getting shots, you are begging to lose. The coach hasn't seemed to get this and call more plays for Howard. The Magic players have blown many leads in this series, telling me they don't have the heart of a champion just yet. The Magic are the better team on the floor from the neck down, but Boston is the better team from the neck up. Boston really seems to want it more and they are tougher mentally. That and homecourt advantage is the difference in game seven. The Celtics are 8-1 straight-up the past two seasons when tied in a playoffs series. They are 40-8 at home this season. This could be a very close game but I like Boston to advance.