Oklahoma City at Denver

Yesterday we backed Boston after their embarrassing loss at home to Utah. They responded after underperforming in such a big way in their last game. In this game we'll go with another of our theories - backing teams off a huge OVERperformance. Denver is off a 137-105 thrashing of Toronto. They covered the 8.5 point spread and with 23.5 points to spare. Now they get the lowly Seattle Supersonics and this game will be no contest. The Nuggets are motivated as they remain 1.5 games behind Golden State for the final playoff spot in the West. Earlier this season Denver beat Seattle 138-106 for their highest point total of the season. They have beaten the Sonics, the worst team in the West, by double-digits three straight times. Seattle gives up 106.5 per game on the road and it's getting worse down the stretch. Over their last five games they have allowed 115.4 per game. With Denver averaging nearly that on offense, watch out for the fireworks here. Denver is 24=11 ATS the past three seasons after a blowout win by 15+ points. PJ Carlesimo-coached teams are 2-14 ATS after allowing 120+ in their last game. Yes, huge spread. But we think Denver covers it.