Oklahoma City at Dallas

Oklahoma City is 4-0 and now plays without Jalen Williams, out with a broken ankle, and Cason Wallace, out with a torn labrum. The defense hasn't slipped. The Thunder allowed 104, 84, 101 and 114 points in those four wins, an average of 100.8, and three of the four opponents finished at 104 or fewer. Monday's 125-114 win over Phoenix came with Chet Holmgren unavailable, and Isaiah Hartenstein had 15 points and 13 rebounds in 26 minutes. Dallas is 2-2 after a 113-109 win at Miami on Monday. Its other three games were a 128-110 loss at Houston, a 121-105 win at Indiana and a 122-106 loss to San Antonio. Oklahoma City beat those same Spurs 116-104 on the road in its opener. Three of Dallas's four scores were 113 or fewer, and no Oklahoma City opponent has topped 114. The Thunder's defense sets the terms on both ends of this ticket: it keeps Dallas's offense in the low 100s to low 110s, and it's why Oklahoma City wins the game, and wins it by a margin. My mathematical model and the common-opponent results both point to a comfortable Thunder win in a game that stays low. Oklahoma City's defense is carrying both bets, so I'm laying the points with the Thunder and taking the UNDER tonight.