New York at Dallas

The Dallas Mavericks looked like a fading team off their 2-7 start, but have recovered nicely and have been on a 19-6 tear since. The wins have come fast and furious, but the team remains overrated and over-valued as they have played way under the line even winning. They remain a pointspread disaster when favored by eight points or more at 3-6. The 19 wins show just six times the Mavs have won by more than 10 points and that puts the value on the other side here. The Knicks have been a flawless 7-0 ATS when a dog of 5-10.5, and 9-2 ATS as a dog in their last 13. The Mavs are just 7-20 ATS in their last 27 at home. That includes just 3-10 ATS at home against teams with a losing record, so I'll side with the Knicks here.