Milwaukee at Denver

This is a whole different approach by the Nuggets this season, as they have not scored 100 points in each of their last four games. To put that in perspective, they scored under 100 just twice after the All-Star break last season. It seems to be paying dividends as they have now won five of their last six. The caution, however, is the pointspread here assumes the big total, so a big number in a game with a lot of points scored makes sense, but not here. The Nuggets wins are all tight games as their largest margin on the season is just 10, and that was an OT game. The Bucks were a disaster on the road last year, with just a 7-34 mark, but are a much improved team this season. The Bucks have almost half of their road-win total from last season in just six games and are 3-3 on the season. The odds-makers haven't caught up yet, and the Bucks are piling up the cash on the road for their backers with five straight covers on the road and a PSM (pointspread margin) of over eight per game. Too many points here, and I'll back the Bucks.