Miami at Washington

The absence of Shaq and another slow start from Wade still wasn't enough for the Washington Wizards to win a "must-win" game. They now find themselves down 0-3 a situation no team in NBA history has rallied from to win a seven game series. The 102-95 Heat victory marked the eleventh consecutive win for the Heat over Wizards. Miami is sporting a perfect 7-0 (5-2 ATS) record in the postseason and they have completely beat down the Wizards who are now just 16-31 ATS in their last 47 games. But can Wizards keep it close enough to cover tonight? Home Dogs haven't done that well this year going 3-8 straight-up 5-6 against-the-number. The high scoring Heat are a solid 16-4-1 ATS last twenty-one hitting the century mark and have owned Wizards going 14-3 (13-2-2 ATS). Washington is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 at home. Teams down 3-0 in a 7 game NBA playoff series are 6-25 SU over the last 20 years! To add insult to injury, the average margin in these 25 wins is 10.5 ppg. The 20 year NBA history says teams faced with this situation, are out manned, and in game 4 they basically go out meekly. For this reason, we'll take that 80.6% trend and back it with a money-line bet (straight-up) on the Heat at -155 for four stars. For good measure we'll throw one star on the Heat minus the points.