Miami at Toronto

The Raptors have owned the Heat this season, winning and covering in all three meetings while outscoring Miami by a combined 57 points. This includes a 121-95 win against the Heat as a 2.5-point home favorite two days ago. These victories are why Toronto is 44-35 and has control of the No. 6 seed in the Eastern Conference, while the Heat are 41-38 and resigned to their fate as a play-in playoff team. The Raptors have held the Heat to 39.5 FG% and 35.0 3P% while forcing 17.3 turnovers per game. The Raptors have the fifth-best defensive rating and more incentive than Miami to win this game. The Heat are not playing well. They are 3-9 SU and ATS in their last 12 games. Miami's defense has slipped noticeably since mid-March. The Heat have allowed at least 121 points in 10 of their last 12 games. The Heat also could be without their leading scorer, Norman Powell. He is questionable with a groin injury. Take the Raptors on the moneyline.