Miami at New Orleans

Scoring is way up in the NBA this season, but that has not stopped the Miami defense. They are one of just six NBA teams that allow fewer than 100 points a game, as they are fourth in fewest points alloowed this season. The problem for the Heat is they also score fewer than 100 points per game as they rank #23 in the NBA in that department. I trust teams that play defense to control the tempo of the game, as Miami prefers the half-court game, and their 40-29 record on the season compared to the .377 winning percentage of the Pelicans indicates they should be in control tonight. This game fits a situation that plays UNDER the total to a 34-10 ATS mark when one of the teams has been playing OVER the total in six straight games or more. Make the play on the UNDER in this one.