Miami at Detroit

The Heat crushed the Champs 88-76 in game-five moving one step closer to it's first ever East Championship. The win moved the Heat's mark to 11-2 (9-4 ATS) overall during postseason with a 5-1 straight-up and 4-2 against-the-spread record on the road. The Pistons are in a double-must-win situation. They are 10-6 straight-up in second season with an 8-6-2 record for it's backers. Miami is showing it can match the best in defensive play. The Pistons are 6-1 UNDER revenging a road loss and 5-1 UNDER at home facing elimination. Of concern is that Detroit is 5-1 OVER at home the last two playoff series and 16-7 OVER their last twenty-three hosting a conference opponent. Also fo concern is that the Heat are 18-8 OVER in their last twenty-six away as underdogs. With those concerns, what makes me so confident on an UNDER play here? Dwayne Wade. He may not play but even if he does, he is NOT going to be at 100%. The linesmakers have barely adjusted this line which tells me the public is not accounting for this major factor. In fact, it's higher than either of the previous two totals in games one and two in Detroit (177.5 and 180). Both of those games went way OVER, contributing to a public mis-perception here yet again. I think the public is overreacting to one game which was WAY out of the ordinary. In game 3, Detroit allowed Miami 113 points. But you must realize that outside of that one game, the most they have allowed at home in the playoffs was 96. Outside of that 113 point game, they have held opponents to an average of 83.3 points per game at The Palace in the playoffs. Miami is holding opponents to 41.0% shooting in the postseason. Detroit, facing elimination, plays inspired defense tonight and Miami struggles to score with Wade at less than full strength. Four stars on the UNDER.