Miami at Dallas

The Miami heat is certainly in a better place than they were last year and will be in the playoffs, however they still haven't learned how to win on the road, especially vs the good teams. Over the last two and a half months the Heat has lost every game vs a team with a winning record they have played on the road and have covered just one of them. The Mavs are holding down the eighth and final playoff spot in the West so every game is crucial for them and they have been tough at home at 26-9. mavs are 7-1 ATS at home vs a road team with a losing record and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 as a home favorite. The Heat is just 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 vs the Mavs. I'll go with the Mavs here.