This pick was released to clients on May 19, 2024 at 12:17PM ET.
img NBA

Miami at Boston

May 19, 2023
img8:40 PM Eastern
Premium Pick
1 unit on Boston -8.5 (-115) (risk 1 to return 1.87)
Result:
LOSS
2 units on Game Total OVER 214.5 -110 (risk 2 to return 3.82)
Result:
WIN

No. 8 seed Miami stole Game 1 so the pressure is on the home team, but Boston has been great with its back-to-the-wall. After losing Game 5 at home, the Celtics went to Atlanta for Game 6, winning and covering, 128-120. After dropping Game 1 at home to the 76ers, they won Game 2, 121-87. And down 3-2 to Philadelphia, Boston won the final two games, 95-86 and 112-88. Miami has a losing road record and is 19-33 ATS after a victory, plus 12-27 ATS after a spread cover. They're also on a 20-7 run OVER the total, including 9-1 OVER on the road. During the regular season, Miami was last in scoring and 26th in shooting, while the Celtics were fourth in scoring and sixth from long range, and the defense was fifth in points and field goal shooting allowed. Boston is 42-27 ATS after a loss, 18-9 ATS after playing two straight home games, and 19-9 ATS off a loss as a home favorite. In addition, they're 45-37 OVER the total as a favorite, including 28-19 OVER as home chalk. In last year's playoffs, Boston trailed in the series versus Miami but evened things up with wins in Game 2 (127-102) and Game 4 (102-82). And NBA teams off a home loss like the Celtics are 59-19 ATS when revenging a straight-up loss to an opponent as a home favorite of 7 or more points. Play Boston + OVER the total as a Max Play.

FINAL
1
2
3
4
F
Miami Heat img
24
30
21
36
111
Boston Celtics
25
25
33
22
105
consensus consensus
odds odds
 
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