Miami at Boston

Miami is the more talented team and gets the win and cover, while the old men of Boston will control the tempo and slow it to a crawl. The Heat is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings, the younger, more athletic team that the aging Celtics just can't keep up with. Miami is 4-0 ATS in their last four against the NBA Atlantic and comes off a 113-101 win at Toronto. The Heat is also 9-2 ATS in their last 11 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Boston has won four in a row, but it's deceptive as they beat struggling teams. The Celtics have struggled most of the season when stepping-up in competition. And when they lose, they lose significantly, losing by 13, 7 and 25 points their last three defeats to the 76ers, Nuggets and Kings. Play the Miami Heat. We know Boston will slow the pace to a crawl, as that's their style, second in the NBA in field goal shooting defense (42% allowing) and this in points allowed. But Miami has also been a dominant defensive team in the second half of the season. They started out the year with a new up-tempo style, but are in the middle of the pack defensively. That's changed, as they are currently No. 8 in the NBA in points allowed and fifth in field goal shooting defense. Miami is 16-5 UNDER the total in their last 21 games when playing on one day of rest and the UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Boston between these rivals. Play the Heat/Celtics UNDER the total.