Miami at Atlanta

We come off one of the most exciting 7-game NBA playoff series ever between Boston and Chicago and we get this series. It too is a 7-game series but it hasn't been exciting. All of the first six games have been double-digit blowouts. The Hawks have won their three games by an average of 17 points and Miami by 23 on average. There have been a total of 12 lead changes in the entire series with none coming after the first quarter of play! I expect this trend to hold for this final game. I like the Hawks to take this down and cover the spread. D-Wade went off last game but he'll have trouble doing so again in this game in Atlanta. He just hasn't performed well in half of this series and hasn't put together back-to-back good games yet. Al Horford was expected to miss this game but he says he'll be ready. Jermaine O'Neal's status for Miami is more up in the air. Miami is just 16-28 on the season on the road this year. Atlanta is 33-11 at home. They will have the crowd and emotion behind them, not to mention the motivation coming off another very embarrassing loss. Miam's yo-yo performances in this series are actually not surprising as the Heat are 17-28 ATS off a win. Atlanta is 13-4 revenging a double-digit road loss this season and I look for both of those trends to continue. Hawks for the win and cover. I also like this game to go UNDER the total. Game 7 means increased intensity, and defense. Atlanta has scored under 95 points in seven of their last eight games. They have held six of those opponents under triple figures. Miami's resume looks very similar. In division games, these teams have combined for 27-16 UNDER this season! The Hawks are now 27-17 UNDER this season vs. winning teams. They are also 26-16 UNDER when revenging a loss (that includes 13-3UNDER revenging a double-digit road loss). Miami is 13-5 UNDER this season coming off a double-digit win. Take the Hawks and the UNDER.