Los Angeles at Houston

The Rockets are facing elimination and the oddsmakers have really played on the 40-point win by the Lakers last game, making them a huge favorite on the road. The largest amount a team has ever been favored by on the road in a semi-final playoff game leading in the series three games to two was 7.5 points - and that is home or away! So this line is groundbreaking for sure. This huge line also comes against a Houston team that has suffered just nine home losses on the season, including the playoffs. Only twice have they lost by a margin greater than this pointspread all year on their home court! The Rockets have bounced back off of a 10-point loss or more this season, going 10-2 ATS in their next game. They are also 15-4 ATS this season revenging a loss in which they were kept to 85 points or less. Meanwhile the Lakers stand just 2-6 ATS in their last eight on the road against a team with a winning record. I like the Rockets to keep it much closer than 9 here and an outright win wouldn't completely shock me. I also like the first-half UNDER. Houston will realize one thing here: They can't enter a track meet with the Lakers, or they get blown out. They are 4-1 at home in the playoffs and in those four wins they allowed 83.5 points per game. In their loss, they allowed 108. The Lakers have played four games on the road in the playoffs, and when they were allowed to get out and run early, they blew out Utah with 60 first half points. The other three games have seen them struggle with the first half concluding with fewer points than offered here. The Rockets have played five games at home and even the game that got away from them vs. the Lakers the first half didn't topple the posted total for this one. I look for a much more focused effort by the Rockets on the defensive end, that's when they are at their best. The Rockets are 31-15 UNDER in the first-half in home games this seaon including 9-1 UNDER after a game in which they allowed 105+ points. Take the Rockets and the first-half UNDER.