Indiana at Sacramento

There is a double-price to pay when you want to back an elite team as a huge chalk on the road vs. a losing team. You face an inflated number, and the prospect of the elite team leaving the "A" game in the locker room in what appears to be an easy win. That has certainly been the case over the past 17 years in the NBA where home dogs of greater than 10 points own a 124-92-1 ATS mark covering at 57.4% on the blind. That rises to 62.4% if our home dog is off a loss. Sacramento brings a winning record over their last nine games into this one, so it's hard to ignore the numbers and situation here. Play on Sacramento.