Indiana at Milwaukee

Indiana was 29-11 at home during the regular season and held serve by taking the first two games. But they're 20-20 on the road with a defense that is 17th in points surrendered and 23rd in shooting allowed. The Pacers are on a 9-15 ATS run, including 4-5 ATS on the road. Milwaukee has home court for this must-win game and gets Damian Lillard back. The Bucks can also lean on a defense that is 13th in points given up, fifth in field goal shooting allowed, and seventh in defending the 3-pointer. The Bucks are 27-14 at home, so back the desperate home team that plays far better defense. Play Milwaukee.