Indiana at Miami

Miami's first win of the season came Wednesday at Atlanta, 129-117, and it was the only game of five in which the Heat scored more than 111. Giannis Antetokounmpo shot 61% in that win and has scored 24 or more points in four of Miami's five games. The Heat's trouble is at the other end. They have allowed 120.8 points a game: 131 to Minnesota, 128 to Detroit, 115 at Charlotte, 113 to Dallas and 117 at Atlanta. Nobody has been held under 113. I build my read on that defense. Indiana comes in scoring 115.0 a game and allowing 114.8. Its last two games, a 114-109 loss to Philadelphia and a 110-102 loss to Milwaukee, finished in the low 200s combined. The Pacers scored 364 points in their other three games, 121.3 a game. That puts a Pacers team that has scored in the 120s against a Heat defense that has given up 113 or more every time out, and Miami's own offense has had a 129 in it. Take the OVER tonight.