Indiana at Miami

The Indiana Pacers have lost a lot from last season's team, thanks in large part to injuries. Out are George, West, Stephenson, and Hill, and those four players contributed 60 points per game last season. But, as much fallout as that suggests, the Pacers have played at nearly the same level without them, as others have stepped up. They are rebounding better and are down just 3.5 points per game on offense, and the defense is allowing just 2 more points per game, and +1.8% on opponents' FG attempts. Miami is not the same team either from a season ago, but the Heat have more workable parts. However, the line here is over compensating the Pacers' personnel losses, and they are showing value in this contest. The Heat are 7-15-1 ATS at home in their last 23 vs. a team with a road winning percentage of under .400. The Heat tend to pick spots for the "A" game, this is not likely one of them. Take the points on Indiana.