Indiana at Miami

The NBA's Eastern Conference has become top heavy. There are only three teams above .500, and one is Atlanta who is just 13-12. It all comes down to a power struggle between Miami and Indiana, and the Heat are being contested for the first time in three years. Indiana is willing their way to being the new sheriff in town, and they added a notch to that resume with a win over Miami at home eight days ago by 6 points. The real test will come tonight, in an anticipated highly-physical game vs. Miami. A win here will push the Pacers to the top of the pedestal in the East. The Heat will certainly not go down easy, but I think the motivation for the challenger is greater than the motivation of the two-time reigning champion. These teams fought hard in round one, with just 174 total points being scored, and I expect no different here tonight. The Pacers have been huge off a loss at 27-10 ATS in their next game, and are even bigger off a spread loss at 11-1 ATS in their last 12. The Pacers will come packing their defense, which is 11-1 to the UNDER in their last 12 on a day of rest. Miami no different, as the Heat are 6-0 at home in their last six when facing an elite road team that has a road winning percentage of greater than .600. The UNDER has prevailed in the last four meetings, and this one has the look of "last shot wins," so the points loom large here. Take them and play on Indiana and the UNDER.