Houston at Oklahoma City

Only two teams gave up fewer points per game than the 107.6 points the Thunder allowed last season. Oklahoma City also forced the most turnovers, and center Chet Holmgren tied for third in blocked shots per game. Houston has a huge question mark at point guard, with Fred VanVleet out for the season with a torn ACL. Kevin Durant is still a great scorer, but he needs someone to get him the ball. The Rockets averaged 113.7 points per game on the road last season, slightly down from their overall average. Oklahoma City has several elite defensive players in Alex Caruso, Jalen Williams, and Lu Dort. Houston ranked No. 1 in rebounding on the road, so the Thunder aren't likely to get many second-chance points. Even after trading stud defender Dillon Brooks to the Suns as part of the Durant deal, the Rockets have the defensive personnel to limit Oklahoma City with Amen Thompson, Tari Eason, and Dorian Finney-Smith. They helped the Rockets finish fifth in the defensive ratings and sixth in fewest points allowed per game at 109.8. In the past few years, each team has played a defensive style early in the season, with Houston going 14-8 UNDER in October, and OKC 12-8 UNDER. We're getting value on this number. Take the UNDER.