Golden State at San Antonio

The Spurs seem to be back. They have their "big three" back and are again winning, having won five of their last seven games. The Warriors are going the opposite direction, having dropped eight straight. A good team vs. a bad team. Easy San Antonio blowout here, right? That's what the public sees. I see something different. San Antonio hasn't laid this much wood all season. And, Golden State hasn't been this large of an underdog all season. This line is an overreaction to recent performance. It all looks too easy and when that happens, it rarely is. The Warriors can score in bunches, but their defense is weak. The Spurs are not a run-it-up team. They prefer to keep games very low-scoring (average home game has totaled 183 points). So, the Spurs aren't set up to exploit Golden State's biggest weakness. Nor do they want to. In a game that should be lower-scoring than most expect, getting this many points is a gift. The Spurs average just 93.5 ppg vs. teams that normally allow 98.4 per game. They score less on average than their opponents normally give up! Meanwhile, the Warriors score 106.3 per game vs. teamst hat normally allow 98.3 - an 8 point difference. Teams off six-straight losses in the NBA are typically very good ATS bets as the spreads get out of hand and their opponents have a tendency to let down a bit. I like the Warriors to keep this one close enough.